Friday, May 06, 2005

Election 2005

All in all, a good night. Labour's majority has been pruned to a much more manageable level, the Conservatives[1] have managed to show themselves strong enough to act as a genuine opposition party, and the Liberal Democrats made some gains in seats and voter share. Add to that we'll soon get rid of Tony Blair, and that Michael Howard has stepped down, and it's Good News All Round.

I had hoped the Lib Dems would do better than they did, but they still picked up almost a dozen seats (putting the Liberals in the best position they've been in since 1926). A few Lib Dem seats fell to tory challenges, which is a little disconcerting... but overall, they received a major swing from Labour. Even those labour MPs who came through with large majorities found that their overall proportion of the vote had plummeted... in many cases as much as 6%, and in a few 9% or more. The only one that I saw that managed a strong showing was Gordon Brown.

We should see the end of Tony Blair in a year or so - he's now an electoral liability, and whilst a labour win was inevitable this year, the next election isn't going to be so easy to call. Early polls showed that labour would have had as much as a 12% lead if Gordon Brown had been their figurehead, compared to Tony Blair's 6%. Gordon Brown obviously can't just inherit the leadership, but he's shown himself to be a very acceptable face to the electorate, as well as someone with a sterling reputation for competence.

Charles Kennedy hails the result as the real beginning of third party politics in Britain. It's still far from that - the Lib Dem vote (about 23% of all votes) still isn't reflected fairly in the number of seats they received (a little over 9%). Proportional representation would bring the Lib Dems into startling focus (with PR, they'd get around 148 seats). It would be nice to see PR in Britain, although it would need a major shakeup of our system. With PR, labour would have only about 227 seats (as compared with the 355 (at time of writing) they have). Ah well. Maybe some day.

Anyway, a good result all around.

[1] A democracy needs a strong opposition, even if it has to come from a shower of bastards like the tories.

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