Chatham House

This is an interesting report issues from Chatham House, home of one of the world's leading independent think tanks. Whilst everyone's attention was focused on the tragedy in Russia, they released a troubling report about Iraq:

The report ‘Iraq in Transition: Vortex or Catalyst’ claims that the hand over will lead to three likely scenarios:

1. If the Shi’a, Sunni and Kurd factions fail to adhere to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), Iraq could fragment or descend into civil war.
   
2. If the transitional government, backed up by a supportive US presence, can assert control, Iraq may well hold together.
   
3. A Regional Remake could overtake the other two scenarios if the dynamics unleashed by Shi’a and Kurdish assertiveness trigger repercussions in neighbouring states.
   

The first scenario is the most likely. Kurdish separatism and Shi’a assertiveness will work against a smooth transition to elections while the Sunni faction continues to engage in resistance.